Fig. 9

The x-axis measures the threshold probability. The y-axis measures the net benefit. The solid horizontal line represents the assumption that none of the patients have refracture. The oblique solid line represents the assumption that all patients have refracture. The blue solid line represents the refracture risk nomogram. The decision curve analysis of the training cohort model (A) shows that if the threshold probability of a patient and a doctor is 1–70%, using this prediction nomogram in the current study to predict refracture risk adds more benefit than the intervention-all-patients scheme or the intervention-none scheme. The threshold probability of validation cohort model (B) is 1–76%