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Table 6 Calibration and discrimination for the scoring methods used in predicting 90-day mortality

From: Proteinuria can predict prognosis after liver transplantation

 

Calibration

Discrimination

Goodness-of-fit (x2)

df

p

AUROC ± SE

95 % CI

P

On admission

 Proteinuria

-

-

-

0.582 ± 0.053

0.479–0.685

NS (0.100)

 Child-Pugh points

10.157

7

0.180

0.580 ± 0.041

0.499–0.662

NS (0.087)

 MELD score

5.845

8

0.665

0.609 ± 0.067

0.418–0.680

NS (0.067)

 RIFLE

─

─

─

0.577 ± 0.067

0.355–0.618

NS (0.845)

 SOFA

1.618

5

0.899

0.648 ± 0.049

0.552–0.745

0.002

 Proteinuria plus SOFA

1.047

5

0.959

0.659 ± 0.052

0.557–0.761

0.002

 Proteinuria plus nonrenal SOFA

6.347

6

0.385

0.658 ± 0.055

0.550–0.765

0.002

Postoperative day 1

 Proteinuria

-

-

-

0.609 ± 0.090

0.432–0.786

NS (0.240)

 Child-Pugh points

2.438

5

0.786

0.639 ± 0.062

0.479–0.721

NS (0.142)

 MELD score

5.947

8

0.653

0.705 ± 0.044

0.620–0.791

<0.001

 RIFLE

2.684

2

0.261

0.626 ± 0.048

0.531–0.720

0.007

 SOFA

3.063

8

0.930

0.761 ± 0.043

0.676–0.845

<0.001

 Proteinuria plus SOFA

7.406

6

0.285

0.828 ± 0.062

0.707–0.949

<0.001

 Proteinuria plus nonrenal SOFA

11.595

5

0.041

0.823 ± 0.078

0.670–0.977

0.001

Postoperative day 7

 Proteinuria

-

-

-

0.757 ± 0.056

0.647–0.866

<0.001

 Child-Pugh points

6.365

4

0.173

0.750 ± 0.065

0.593–0.847

0.001

 MELD score

26.161

8

0.001

0.856 ± 0.038

0.782–0.930

<0.001

 RIFLE

9.602

2

0.008

0.825 ± 0.042

0.742–0.908

<0.001

 SOFA

6.073

6

0.415

0.899 ± 0.031

0.838–0.961

<0.001

 Proteinuria plus SOFA

8.625

6

0.196

0.907 ± 0.041

0.825–0.988

<0.001

 Proteinuria plus nonrenal SOFA

7.856

6

0.249

0.903 ± 0.038

0.828–0.978

<0.001

Postoperative day 14

 Proteinuria

-

-

-

0.773 ± 0.067

0.642–0.904

0.005

 Child-Pugh points

3.469

3

0.325

0.783 ± 0.052

0.682–0.885

<0.001

 MELD score

134.84

8

<0.001

0.850 ± 0.056

0.740–0.960

<0.001

 RIFLE

1.658

2

0.436

0.780 ± 0.050

0.681–0.879

<0.001

 SOFA

24.495

7

0.001

0.892 ± 0.044

0.806–0.978

<0.001

 Proteinuria plus SOFA

3.987

7

0.781

0.900 ± 0.042

0.819–0.982

<0.001

 Proteinuria plus nonrenal SOFA

5.009

7

0.659

0.894 ± 0.038

0.819–0.969

<0.001

  1. Values in bold are statistically significant (P-value < 0.05)
  2. On ICU admission day (before transplantation): The prediction accuracy of the SOFA score was better than those of the Child-Pugh points, MELD score and RIFLE. The proteinuria plus SOFA score has an even better discriminatory power than the SOFA score
  3. On post-transplant day 1, 7, 14: The prediction accuracy of the SOFA and MELD score was better than that of the Child-Pugh points. The proteinuria plus SOFA score has an even better discriminatory power than the SOFA score
  4. Abbreviation: MELD, model for end-stage liver disease; SOFA, sequential organ failure assessment; df, degree of freedom; AUROC, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve; SE, standard error; CI, confidence intervals; NS, not significant
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BMC Surgery

ISSN: 1471-2482

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