Early prediction of survival after open surgical repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms

BMC Surgery

Table 2 Comparisons of the areas under the ROC curves for prediction of mortality

	Cut-off point	Sensitivity/Specificity	AUC	p
SOFA
24 h	> 9	71.4/86.1	0.79 (95% CI, 0.67 - 0,89)	< 0.01
48 h	> 9	76.5/85.3	0.83 (95% CI, 0.70 - 0.92)	< 0.01
72 h	> 10	78.6/77.8	0.79 (95% CI, 0.63 - 0.90)	< 0.01
Mean	> 7.25	85.7/85.7	0.92 (95% CI, 0.81 - 0.97)	< 0.01
Max	> 9	95.2/71.4	0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 - 0.94)	< 0.01
SAPS II
Initial	> 45	90/58.3	0.76 (95% CI, 0.62 - 0.86)	< 0.01
24 h	> 40	95/60	0.85 (95% CI, 0.73 - 0.93)	< 0.01
48 h	> 37	93.7/56.2	0.80 (95% CI, 0.66 - 0.90)	< 0.01
72 h	> 43	85.7/65.2	0.73 (95% CI, 0.55 - 0.86)	0.01
Mean	> 43.4	95.2/80.6	0.91 (95% CI, 0.80 - 0.97)	< 0.01
Max	> 54	95.2/69.4	0.88 (95% CI, 0.76 - 0.95)	< 0.01
TISS-28
Initial	> 38	52.6/73.3	0.58 (95% CI, 0.43 - 0.72)	0.35
24 h	> 34	73.7/62.9	0.71 (95% CI, 0.57 - 0.82)	< 0.01
48 h	> 32	80/60	0.73 (95% CI, 0.58 - 0.85)	< 0.01
72 h	> 32	92.3/52.2	0.77 (95% CI, 0.61 - 0.90)	< 0.01
Mean	> 36.25	70/91.4	0.86 (95% CI, 0.74 - 0.94)	< 0.01
Max	> 47	61.9/82.9	0.74 (95% CI, 0.61 - 0.85)	< 0.01

Calculation of ROC curves for the different models. The cut-off point is the optimal threshold to distinguish between survivors and non-survivors. The sensitivity and specificity correspond to the cut-off point. Mean Score was calculated as the average of every assessed score.
AUC = area under the curve; SOFA = Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; SAPS II = Simplified Acute Physiology Score II; TISS-28 = Simplified Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System-28.

ISSN: 1471-2482